| Even if you are not a political junkie
| |
| | reasonably accurate result, provided it
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| like I am, you will still probably find
| |
| | is random enough and varied enough among
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| yourself glued to your TV set on election
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| | all demographic groups, geographic areas,
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| night. Obviously, you'll be waiting to
| |
| | etc. To use an analogy that I've often
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| find out whether President George W. Bush
| |
| | heard, you don't need to drink the whole
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| will be elected or if Senator John F.
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| | glass of tea to find out whether or not
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| Kerry of Massachusetts will become our
| |
| | it's sweet. Just a taste will due,
|
| 44th President. Will everything you see
| |
| | assuming the glass has been stirred
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| and hear that night be interesting? Will
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| | properly. The other criticism is: "They
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| it even make sense to you? Well, if all
| |
| | ask intentionally misleading and
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| you are interested in is finding out who
| |
| | confusing questions." This is quite true
|
| wins, you may be in for a long and boring
| |
| | of many political polls. However, the
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| night. Volumes of information will be
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| | main question asked during exit poling
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| presented that night before a final
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| | is: "For whom did you vote?". I wonder
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| winner is declared. However, if you know
| |
| | which part of that question people
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| a few things to look for, all of that
| |
| | wouldn't understand.As states are called,
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| stuff might make a lot more sense and
| |
| | their electoral votes are placed into one
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| actually be interesting as well.For one
| |
| | candidate's column. Also, look for each
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| thing, you need to be aware that there's
| |
| | news organization to utilize a map of the
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| only going to be a passive emphasis on
| |
| | United States, which starts out with each
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| the national popular vote, i.e., the
| |
| | state depicted as white. As a state is
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| total amount of votes cast nationally for
| |
| | called for Bush, its color is changed to
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| each candidate. That's because it doesn't
| |
| | red; as a state is called for Kerry, its
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| determine who wins - the electoral votes
| |
| | color is changed to blue; hence, the red
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| do. In every state except Maine,
| |
| | states and blue states. Look for Kentucky
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| Nebraska, and perhaps Colorado (more on
| |
| | to be the first state called. That state
|
| that later), the winner of that state
| |
| | closes its polls at 6:00 Eastern Time and
|
| receives all of its electoral votes.
| |
| | will almost certainly fall into Bush's
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| Maine awards them by congressional
| |
| | column. Once a candidate reaches 270 or
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| district, with the other two going to
| |
| | more electoral votes, he will be declared
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| that state's overall winner. Nebraska
| |
| | the winner of the election, regardless of
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| awards its electoral votes
| |
| | the total popular votes or how many red
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| proportionally, based on the percentage
| |
| | or blue states he has earned.If Bush wins
|
| of the popular vote each candidate
| |
| | all the states he won in 2000 and no
|
| receives in that state.The number of
| |
| | more, he will win by a larger margin
|
| electoral votes each state has is
| |
| | (277-261) in the electoral college than
|
| calculated by adding the number of its
| |
| | he won by last time (271-267). Actually,
|
| congressional districts to the number of
| |
| | he could lose one of his smaller states
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| its senators. The number of congressional
| |
| | like New Hampshire, without picking up
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| districts each state has is based on its
| |
| | one that Gore won, and still win the
|
| population. The more populous states like
| |
| | election. This is because, based on the
|
| California and Texas have a lot more
| |
| | 2000 census, the population has shifted a
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| congressional districts than more
| |
| | bit and six congressional seats (and
|
| sparsely populated states like Wyoming or
| |
| | therefore the same amount of electoral
|
| Vermont. However, every state has at
| |
| | votes) have shifted from "Gore" states to
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| least one congressional district, no
| |
| | "Bush" states.The key states to watch
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| matter how small its population. Every
| |
| | throughout the evening will be the
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| state has exactly two senators.
| |
| | so-called "battleground" states. The
|
| Therefore, every state has at least three
| |
| | candidate who wins the majority of those
|
| electoral votes. In addition to all the
| |
| | states will likely win the election. By
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| states, the District of Columbia is
| |
| | most estimates, these states include New
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| allotted three electoral votes, even
| |
| | Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, West
|
| though it has no voting members in
| |
| | Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin,
|
| Congress.Many people believe the
| |
| | Colorado, and New Mexico. Most of the
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| electoral college, the system of casting
| |
| | other states are considered to already be
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| electoral votes to determine the outcome
| |
| | in the column of one candidate or the
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| of the presidential election, is
| |
| | other. As a general rule, Bush is
|
| inherently unfair and should be abolished
| |
| | expected to be strong in the south,
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| in favor of a system in which the winner
| |
| | southwest, and mountain and prairie west.
|
| is determined purely by the national
| |
| | Kerry looks to be strong in the
|
| popular vote. Of course, it would take a
| |
| | northeast, upper Midwest, and along the
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| Constitutional amendment for that to
| |
| | Pacific coast. I don't see any state
|
| happen. Therefore, the electoral college
| |
| | further west than New Mexico or Colorado
|
| is here to stay. Even if such amendment
| |
| | being a major decisive factor. It is
|
| could get the required two-thirds margin
| |
| | already assumed that California, Oregon,
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| in the House and Senate, it would never
| |
| | Washington, and Hawaii will all go for
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| be able to get the required
| |
| | Kerry, while Alaska will go for
|
| three-quarters of the state legislatures.
| |
| | Bush.Colorado could prove to be the most
|
| There are too many small states that
| |
| | controversial this time, but only if
|
| would be staunchly opposed to it, as they
| |
| | everything falls right. There is an
|
| feel that the electoral college allows
| |
| | initiative on the Colorado ballot to
|
| them to be "players" in the presidential
| |
| | award its electoral votes proportionally,
|
| election campaign that they would not be
| |
| | instead of awarding all nine of them to
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| in a purely popular vote system. These
| |
| | the winner, as it does now. If passed,
|
| small states fear that they would be
| |
| | this would go into effect immediately
|
| completely ignored by presidential
| |
| | with this election. Since the race in
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| candidates, without the electoral
| |
| | Colorado is expected to be close, the
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| college. I fear that they are right.Many
| |
| | results of this measure would effectively
|
| states will be "called", i.e., a
| |
| | take four electoral votes away from the
|
| projected winner of that state will be
| |
| | winner of the state and give them to the
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| announced, by news organizations as soon
| |
| | loser. Therefore, if the measure passes
|
| as the polls close in those states. This
| |
| | and the candidate who wins Colorado loses
|
| can be done fairly accurately with the
| |
| | the election by less than nine electoral
|
| use of exit polls, a process by which
| |
| | votes, the measure will have cost that
|
| voters are asked about their decision as
| |
| | candidate the election. Obviously, a
|
| they are exiting their polling places. If
| |
| | major legal battle would ensue if that
|
| the exit polling sample alone from a
| |
| | happened.One final item to watch for on
|
| given state shows a clear victory for one
| |
| | election night is the battle for control
|
| candidate, they will call that state as
| |
| | of the House and the Senate. The
|
| soon as its polls close. If the exit
| |
| | Republicans currently hold a slim margin
|
| polls show that a given state is too
| |
| | in both houses. Several key wins, or
|
| close to call, they will wait until
| |
| | "pick-ups," by the Democrats could turn
|
| enough of the actual vote count comes in
| |
| | things around in their favor in one house
|
| before calling that state. Exit polls are
| |
| | or possibly both. Conversely, some
|
| sometimes wrong, though. The most
| |
| | pick-ups by the Republicans could
|
| infamous example was Florida in 2000,
| |
| | increase their margin in one or both
|
| when it was called for Gore based on exit
| |
| | house. Key races that could go either way
|
| polling data and some of the actual
| |
| | will be monitored closely throughout the
|
| results. After more of the actual results
| |
| | evening.Terry Mitchell is a software
|
| started coming in, however, the news
| |
| | engineer from Hopewell, VA. He operates a
|
| organizations soon started to realize
| |
| | website, on which he posts commentaries
|
| things might not go in Florida the way
| |
| | on various subjects such as politics,
|
| they had projected, so they soon
| |
| | technology, religion, health and
|
| retracted their call and the state
| |
| | well-being, personal finance, and sports.
|
| ultimately went to Bush.By the way,
| |
| | His commentaries offer a unique point of
|
| people who say they never believe exit
| |
| | view that is not often found in the
|
| polls (or political polls in general)
| |
| | mainstream media. He rarely misses an
|
| will offer two main criticisms of them.
| |
| | opportunity to assail political
|
| The first is: "They've never asked me."
| |
| | correctness and take pot shots at the
|
| In actuality, very few voters are ever
| |
| | conventional foolishness. Mr. Mitchell is
|
| contacted by pollsters. Only a very small
| |
| | also a trivia buff.
|
| sample of voters is needed to get a
| |
| |
|
