Should I Still Buy Real Estate After All That Has Happened?

Rehoboth Beach Delaware is called the Nation'sresidential areas around Metropolitan Washington D.C.
Summer Capital because we are such a commonsuch as Northern Virginia, Maryland and to a lesser
second home and entertainment location for thedegree parts of Delaware and Pennsylvania. The
powerful and influential people of Washington D.C.bedrooms for those who run our national capital reach
There are few people making over $75,000 a year inout a hundred miles from the center of town. CSW is
the DC professions who do not frequent this areanot predicting the 20% annual real estate property
when they need privacy, space, fresh ocean air andvalue increases of the last few years but they are
relaxation. It's not just summer that draws thempredicting a 4.2 % annual increase for the DC related
anymore, they come year 'round. And it's not justarea now instead of the 3.8 % increase they predicted
Rehoboth Beach anymore, they populate Lewes,before the horrors and attacks of 9-11. They are
Dewey Beach, Bethany Beach, Fenwick Island and allpredicting downturns in values elsewhere and deeper
the little towns near the Delaware Beaches.downturns than before in all the other major markets.
During the past several years all real estate, especiallyCSW acknowledges that tourism to DC will be hurt
waterfront real estate or beach real estate anywheresome by the attacks. Personally I know that Crystal
has been a phenomenal investment. Rehoboth areaCity has increased traffic of late by sightseers who
increases have been as much as 30-40% per year inhave recently come to DC and want to view the
the ocean block for the last few years! Part of thisdestruction of part of the Pentagon. Additionally, room
surge was just a catch-up from nearly a decade ofrentals are only slightly hurt in the Washington D. C.
relatively flat appreciation rates.area as tourists normally in DC for the fall events have
While Washington D.C., along with numerous otherbeen partially replaced by consultants and visiting
cities has seen price increases in real estate ofdignitaries. Along with the upgraded appreciation
15-30% per year over the last few years. While thepredictions for the DC area real estate market CSW
rest of the country has little if any appreciation in realhas farther downgraded it's prediction for appreciation
estate values this year DC has remained hot, thoughrates in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver,
not as hot as last year. Most areas of our countryDetroit, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New
have had no appreciation in prices on average for thisYork, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San
year - except for small portions of some metropolitanDiego, San Francisco, and Seattle.
areas.Here are my personal predictions, based on over thirty
The entire economy has cooled way down. Globally,years of selling property here in the Delaware resort
real estate is not expected to do very well over theareas. I also maintain an almost daily connection to the
next few years. In addition to residential real estategoings on of the DC real estate markets. Washington
being hard hit -- retail, commercial and industrial realDC will experience an influx of highly paid professionals
estate has been mostly languishing, unsold even atfor the defense and research industries as well as
lower prices and even with commercial mortgagecomputer security, personal security and warfare
rates of half what they were a few years ago.related services.
This Delaware Resort area and Washington D.C. areThere will also be a terrific increase in any and all
predictably different from anywhere else. DC is whereInternet related firms that service the staff of our
people flock when any national emergency or militarygovernment and government contractors who will fight
expansion is underway. We are seeing unprecedentedthe new war. Much of this war will be fought with
buildups in military, government and private sectors askeyboard, mouse and joystick. These new hi-tech
a result of our instant reaction to the attacks and theworkers and the ones already involved will be under
nearly immediate national decision to mount a worldincreased stress and accepting increased pay over
wide high-tech war against the terrorists and their allies.the next few years as we fight a high-tech war
This Delaware Beach area is a part time bedroom,against terrorism. These same factors and more will
escape, business-meeting and bar community for thegive increased reasons and funds for more people to
Washingtonian influential and powerful elite. Here theyvisit our beach areas. As always some of these
can get away and plan in private for what must bevisitors will decide to purchase here. The visitors and
done!new buyers bring others with them and more of these
The Wall Street Journal posted an interesting articlevisits are business related now.
"Where Housing is Headed in Wake of Attacks" on 09Washington DC firms and companies that are
21/2001 by June Fletcher and Danielle Reed regardingfinancially related to these firms will rapidly be adding
the future of real estate -after the attacks. Before thehighly paid staff and subcontractors. This will require a
attacks Real Estate sales were the major factorhuge increase in every kind of service industry as well
keeping the rest of the economy from plummetingas all the hospitality industry relatives. The more highly
more terribly than it has. The attacks have badlypaid and more highly stressed war related workers will
shocked the world real estate market. The residential,predictably seek vacation time, relaxation time and
commercial, industrial and even the governmentclose by meeting sites in Rehoboth, Dewey, Bethany,
acquisition of property in the major cities has lagged orFenwick and Lewes just as they always have. More
stopped almost everywhere. No one knows how longand more of these highly paid folks will also need to
this will last of course.visit us more often, for longer periods, and increasingly
Since the New York, D. C. Pentagon, and Pennsylvaniathroughout the year for myriad reasons. Many of them
attacks on the World Trade Center, The Pentagonwill move here and begin to work here from phones,
and the attempts on The White House; we havefax, laptops and home computers. We are seeing it
reason to review many things. General real estatehappen already. We, as a result, will need to have
markets world wide have been drastically affectedmore and more of our resort infrastructure and more
since the war began -- and the war may last a longof our businesses open, year 'round. We will need to
time. Part if not most of the instant real estate marketemploy more and better trained people in every area
change was due to the banking industry which washere and they too will need housing and services. We
one of the most severely affected of all US business.are growing!
Many of the offices in New York that were destroyedWe will see an every increasing growth rate for those
were central banking centers from around the world.who telecommute from here at the beach - part or full
We are beginning to recover from the bankingtime. Already I see a large percentage of our
difficulties now. In fact our in-house mortgage brokerprospective customers and buyers that are now or
Prosperity Mortgage which uses Wells Fargo funding issoon will be working from home. Those who spend
up and running full speed, no problems. We have thelong weekends here in the beach area with a laptop
lowest residential mortgage rates in 40 years rightand cell phone to handle professional responsibilities are
now. But full technical recovery of the banking industryan ever increasing group. Kate and I work from home
will take a while.most of the time. Our waterfront neighbor is a
The real estate market of Washington DC, our feedermortgage broker and is often on her balcony with her
community, remains strongest in the nation. Accordinglaptop and phones doing business. Kate often does a
to Case, Shiller and Weiss known as CSW; andfull day's work out at the end of our pier. We are
claimed by the New York Times to be the leadinghome workers and every month more of our
residential real estate analysts in the world; we arecustomers are as well. Several of our recent
heading deeper into a declining real estate market forpurchasers work at home full or part time.
this country and others, the exception beingAs a result of all these property appreciating factors; I
Washington D.C. CSW is predicting DC to appreciatewonder if our Delaware Beach Area and Rehoboth
and to increase in appreciation more than previouslyBeach real estate will actually outstrip the appreciation
predicted. This prediction, of course, includes theof DC real estate once again.